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Washington leads with militarized responses
 

edited by Charles Knight & Carl Conetta

The Reset Defense Bulletin  is a bi-weekly review of strategic issues from the Project on Defense
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NATO expansion and the Ukraine

Speaking in Tallinn, Estonia on September 3rd President Obama laid out a series of military moves he is ready to make in Eastern Europe in the wake of the Ukrainian crisis:

"... in the Baltics, it would mean positioning more American equipment so it’s ready if needed.  It would mean more training and exercises between our militaries.  And it would mean more U.S. forces -- including American boots on the ground -- continuously rotating through Estonia and Latvia and Lithuania."


The U.S. will also: "...do more to help other NATO Partners, including Georgia and Moldova, strengthen their defenses." 

Indeed, on September 7th Secretary Hagel arrived in Georgia to assure his audience that DoD  "... fully supports Georgia's defense modernization efforts and will continue to help the nation fulfill its euro-Atlantic aspirations -- including membership in NATO."

In NATO circles and in Washington it has become routine to refer to Putin's aggression against Ukraine and to frame the issue as a need to reinforce Western military capabilities before Moscow moves militarily on the Baltics and other former Soviet territories and allies (of the Warsaw Pact.)

There is, however, another narrative that should bring some pause to the current advance into a new Cold War with Russia.  This other narrative has been given prominence by John Mearsheimer in a recent article in Foreign Affairs.


In Mearsheimer's view:

"The taproot of the trouble is NATO enlargement, the central element of a larger strategy to move Ukraine out of Russia’s orbit and integrate it into the West. At the same time, the EU’s expansion eastward and the West’s backing of the pro-democracy movement in Ukraine -- beginning with the Orange Revolution in 2004 -- were critical elements, too. Since the mid-1990s, Russian leaders have adamantly opposed NATO enlargement, and in recent years, they have made it clear that they would not stand by while their strategically important neighbor turned into a Western bastion."


Clearly Russia today is no Germany in the late '30s or the hyper-militarized Soviet Union in the '60s and '70s.  Even if Putin has hopes and dreams of re-building empire, he does not have the means to do so.  

Rather than reaching for such fantastic explanations for Moscow's behavior, a better guide for Western response is to accept the likelihood that Putin is behaving rather desparately from a relative position of weakness.  He is attempting to prevent an enormous geo-strategic loss to NATO allied nations -- nations that have been antagonistic to Moscow's interests for most of a century.
  No one in Washington and Brussels should be surprised by Putin's reaction.

Negotiating an end to the present hostilities that leaves the Ukraine as an nonalligned, yet independent, state is a far wiser way to go than continuing the policy of relentlessly pushing up against Russia ... and thus colluding with Moscow in precipitating a costly new Cold War. 

And, how has it come to this point where Washington is tone deaf to the vital strategic interests of other great powers ( in Russia's case, a much lesser, relatively declining, power and in China's case, a rising lesser power)?  Is this simply the usual blindness of ideologues (Washington's and Europe's neo-liberals) to their grandiose self-regard and self-importance?   If so, we would have expected the failures of wars in Afghanistan and Iraq and the financial implosion of 2007-2008 to have brought on some serious self-reflection.


ISIS and Counter-terror Strategy

It should be fairly obvious that U.S. counter-terror strategy (organized by the Bush administration as the Global War of Terror) is now in tatters.  Coerced regime change in Kabul and Bahgdad has not worked and "taking out" leaders of terror cells has resulted in new, even more virulent, cells sprouting elsewhere.

So what "strategy" does President Obama articulate after weeks of study and consideration?  Basically, much of the same.

In his speech on 10 September the President made the case for his strategy this way:

"This strategy of taking out terrorists who threaten us, while supporting partners on the front lines, is one that we have successfully pursued in Yemen and Somalia for years.  And it is consistent with the approach I outlined earlier this year:  to use force against anyone who threatens America’s core interests, but to mobilize partners wherever possible to address broader challenges to international order."


As Thomas Joscelyn and Bill Roggio point out, it is premature at best to call the campaigns in Yemen (and Somalia) 'successful':

"By 2011, AQAP [Al-quaeda in the Arabian Peninsula] seized control of much of southern Yemen, and held it for more than a year despite an intensive US-led drone campaign. Yemeni troops prevented AQAP from openly controlling the provinces of Abyan and Shabwa by mid-2012, but the jihadist group shifted its fighters to other provinces and still controls large areas of central, southern, and eastern Yemen.


"In 2013, according to the State Department, 'AQAP and AQAP-affiliated groups carried out hundreds of attacks throughout Yemen, including suicide bombings, car bombings, ambushes, kidnappings, and targeted assassinations by gunmen riding motorcycles.'


"The situation has hardly improved throughout 2014. AQAP has openly challenged the state for control of the eastern province of Hadramout even as the US has continued counterterrorism operations."

Gordon Adams writes in Foreign Policy:

"...
the danger the president's policy faces is not a result of the contrast between his subtle approach to U.S. leadership (read: "stabilizer of the global system") and W.'s more blunt approach.

"The danger is in assuming that the policy being undertaken is, in fact, stabilizing.  Stability can be bought, for a time, but often at the cost of a systematic, widespread disintegration of that order. 

"And yet here we go again, dragging ourselves into yet another war in the region, pulling reluctant allies behind us, arguing for order and stability -- but unleashing our military might."


Secretary Kerry has cobbled together a coalition of nations to oppose ISIS.  Iran is notably not included.  At this point when Iran is the object of a sanctions regime orchestrated by Western powers it will refuse to 'join' a coalition clearly dominated by the U.S.  Anne Gearan writing in the Washington Post gives another reason Iran is not part of the coalition:

"If Shiite power broker Iran were present, Sunni power broker Saudi Arabia would bolt."

However, the U.S. will make a big mistake if does not vigorously engage Iran behind the scenes -- giving due regard to its interests in Iraq and Syria.

President Bush handed Iran a great geo-strategic gift by invading Iraq and transforming this Sunni-dominated enemy of Iran into an Iran-friendly Shia-dominated state.  If Iraq is to at least remain semi-whole going forward, the U.S. will need to do what it can to induce and encourage the cooperation of Iran in pushing the Iraqi government toward real inclusion of Sunni parties and interests.  

There are two other things that the U.S. needs from Iran: cooperation in negotiating a settlement of the civil war in Syria and participation in healing the 'Sunni-Shia split' which fuels the ideological power of groups like ISIS.
  

These steps toward recovery in Iraq and diminishing the influence of ISIS in the region will also have to involve change in Saudi behavior.  All too often the Saudis act as 'reckless driver' allies in the Middle East manipulating U.S. diplomacy into unproductive positions.


Budget Effects

Proponents of increasing the DoD budget have been busy 'making hay' from the ISIS and Putin threats.  The National Security Network has a good summary of why new military activities in the Middle East do not require additional defense spending:


"The President’s campaign against the Islamic State has revived debate over the Budget Control Act (BCA) caps on Department of Defense spending. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) said last Friday, 'If we don’t replace the cuts in sequestration, we’re going to compromise our ability to be successful against [the Islamic State] and other emerging threats,' and Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) shared similar views, saying, 'I know that if we don’t, we will cripple the United States’ ability to defend this nation.… That isn’t my view — that’s [the view] of every military leader I know.'

"However, while some lawmakers see the fight against the Islamic State as a rallying point to raise the BCA caps, budget experts such as Todd Harrison, a defense budget analyst at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, point out, 'The reality is they don’t need to modify the budget caps to do this… The budget caps don’t actually constrain what we’re talking about doing in Iraq and Syria' -- because those operations are paid for by Overseas Contingency Operations funding (OCO), which is not subject to BCA caps.

"Moreover, the costs of operations thus far against the Islamic State have been minimal, only '$7.5 million per day since June 16,' reports Inside Defense – a sliver of the total nearly $60 billion dollar OCO request submitted by the Pentagon for FY2015. Col. Steve Warren, a Pentagon spokesman adds, 'We believe that we can meet all our current requirements right now with FY-14 [overseas contingency operations funding].'"


 

News and Commentary
  CNN:  "Who is doing what in the caolition battle against ISIS?" Ashley Fantz, 15 September 2014.
http://www.cnn.com/2014/09/14/world/meast/isis-coalition-nations/


National Security Network:  "President's 'Critics' Don't Have an Islamic State Strategy," 15 September 2014.
http://nsnetwork.org/presidents-critics-dont-have-an-islamic-state-strategy/

New York Times:  "Syrian Leaders See Opportunities and Risks in U.S. Striking ISIS on Their Soil," Anne Barnard,  14 September 2014.
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/15/world/middleeast/syrian-leaders-see-opportunities-and-risks-in-us-strikes-against-isis-on-their-soil.html


Washington Post:  "U.S.-led coalition seeks to exclude Iran from fight against Islamic State:

Iran is a huge player in both Iraq and Syria, but involvement in new group could cause Saudis to drop out," Anne Gearan, 13 September 2014.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/us-led-coalition-seeks-to-exclude-iran-from-fight-against-islamic-state/2014/09/13/71193e8a-3b4a-11e4-a023-1d61f7f31a05_story.html


Foreign Policy:  "Sharks in the Desert," Gordon Adams, 12 September 2014.
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/09/12/sharks_in_the_desert_obama_speech_syria_iraq_islamic_state

Politico Pro:  "Lawmakers see budget opening in ISIL," Jeremy Herb, 12 September 2014.
http://www.politico.com/story/2014/09/lawmakers-budget-pentagon-islamic-state-isil-110903.html


The Long War Journal:  "US strategy against Islamic State to mirror counterterrorism efforts in Yemen, Somalia,"
http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2014/09/us_to_strategy_again.php


ABC News:  "Obama's ISIS Strategy: What we know so far," Devin Dwyer, 08 September 2014.
http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2014/09/obamas-isis-strategy-what-we-know-so-far/

The New Yorker:  "In Search of a Strategy," Steve Coll, 08 September 2014.
http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2014/09/08/return-war

Stars and Stripes:  "In place of 'boots on the ground,' US seeks contractors for Iraq,"  Seth Robson, 07 September 2014.
http://www.stripes.com/news/in-place-of-boots-on-the-ground-us-seeks-contractors-for-iraq-1.301798

DoD News:  "Hagel: U.S. Backs Georgia’s New NATO Standing, Boosts Defense Support," Cheryl Pellerin, 07 September 2014.
http://www.defense.gov/news/newsarticle.aspx?id=123105


Council on Foreign Relations:  "Media Conference Call: John Mearsheimer on NATO," 04 September 2014.
http://www.cfr.org/russian-federation/media-conference-call-john-mearsheimer-nato/p33389

War on the Rocks:  "Obama Shouldn't Lose His Cool Over the Islamic State,"  Craig Whiteside, 04 September 2014.
http://warontherocks.com/2014/09/obama-shouldnt-lose-his-cool-over-the-islamic-state/

McClatchy DC:  "Global crises don't justify more Pentagon spending," William Hartung, 04 September 2014.
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2014/09/04/238585_global-crises-dont-justify-more.html

The National Interest:  "If America Could Rebuild the U.S. Navy from Scratch," James Holmes, 04 September 2014.
http://nationalinterest.org/feature/if-america-could-rebuild-the-us-navy-scratch-11198


The Daily Beast:  "NATO Plans New Military Outposts to Stop Putin  -  Just Don't Call them Bases," Eli Lake, 03 September 2014.
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/09/03/nato-plans-new-military-outposts-to-stop-putin-just-don-t-call-them-bases.html


The Guardian:  "Far from keeping the peace, Nato is a threat to it," Seamus Milne, 03 September 2014.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/03/nato-peace-threat-ukraine-military-conflict

The Atlantic:  "Obama Just Made the Ultimate Commitment to Eastern Europe," David Frum, 03 September 2014.
http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2014/09/obama-commitment-eastern-europe-russia-nato/379581/

Foreign Policy:  "The Great Defense Spending Distraction," Gordon Adams, 03 September 2014.
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/09/03/the_great_defense_spending_distraction_nato_spending

New York Times:  "Commitments on Three Fronts Test Obama’s Foreign Policy," David E. Sanger, 03 September 2014.
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/04/world/europe/commitments-on-3-fronts-test-obamas-foreign-policy-doctrine.html


Real Clear Defense:  "How to Sink an Aircraft Carrier," David Axe, 02 September 2014.
http://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2014/09/02/how_to_sink_an_aircraft_carrier_107406.html

Stars and Stripes:  "US leaves Free Syrian Army leaders out of military planning," Roy Gutman and Mousab Alhamadee, 01 September 2014.
http://www.stripes.com/news/middle-east/us-leaves-free-syrian-army-leaders-out-of-military-planning-1.300997

Foreign Affairs:  "Why the Ukraine Crisis Is the West’s Fault: The Liberal Delusions That Provoked Putin," John J. Mearsheimer, September/October 2014.
http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/141769/john-j-mearsheimer/why-the-ukraine-crisis-is-the-wests-fault


Defense News:  "Could Global Threat Picture Restore US Defense Increases?"  John T. Bennett, 31 August 2014.
http://www.defensenews.com/article/20140831/DEFREG02/30831001

New York Times:  "Obama and the Warmongers," Charles M. Blow, 31 August 2014.
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/01/opinion/charles-blow-the-politics-of-the-isis-threat.html

DoD News:  "Pentagon Prepares Options for President on ISIL,"  Jim Garamone, 29 August 2014.
http://www.defense.gov/news/newsarticle.aspx?id=123042


War on the Rocks: "The NDP Review is Worse than You Thought," Christopher Bolan, 29 August 2014.
http://warontherocks.com/2014/08/the-ndp-review-is-worse-than-you-thought/


E-Internation Relations:  "Rapid Fire: Is the Ukraine Crisis the West’s Fault? Part 3,"
http://www.e-ir.info/2014/08/27/rapid-fire-is-the-ukraine-crisis-the-wests-fault-part-3/


CNN:  "Can the U.S. afford another $3 trillion war?" Linda J. Bilmes, 27 August 2014.
http://edition.cnn.com/2014/08/27/opinion/iraq-opinion-united-states-cost-of-war/index.html

LobeLog:  "Let's Keep ISIS in Perspective,"  Wayne White27 August 2014.
http://www.lobelog.com/lets-keep-isis-in-perspective/

DoD Buzz:  "Pentagon May Retool Budget for Iraq Airstrikes," Brendan McGarry, 22 August 2014.
http://www.dodbuzz.com/2014/08/22/pentagon-may-retool-budget-for-iraq-airstrikes/

Foreign Policy: "Mission Leap," Micah Zenko, 22 August 2014.
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/08/22/five_signs_mission_creep_iraq_

Open Democracy: 
"Why Washington's war on terror failed: the underrated Saudi connection," Patrick Cockburn, 21 August 2014.
https://www.opendemocracy.net/opensecurity/patrick-cockburn/why-washington%27s-war-on-terror-failed-underrated-saudi-connection

War on the Rocks:  "Don’t BS the American People About Iraq, Syria, and ISIL," Brian Fishman, 20 August 2014.
http://warontherocks.com/2014/08/dont-bs-the-american-people-about-iraq-syria-and-isil/


Defense News:  "After months on back burner, sequester fears return," Marcus Weisgerber, 19 August 2014.
http://www.defensenews.com/article/20140819/DEFREG02/308190023/After-Months-Back-Burner-Sequester-Fears-Return


The World Post: "Islamic State: The Monster Western Intervention Created," David Hearst 19 August 2014.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/david-hearst/islamic-state--the-monste_b_5692390.html

RAND blog:  "To Fight ISIS, Make Peace with Syria's Assad," William Young, 13 August 2014.
http://www.rand.org/blog/2014/08/to-fight-isis-make-peace-with-syrias-assad.html

Foreign Policy in Focus:  "Bombing the Caliphate: U.S. airstrikes are just the kind of outside force that will keep ISIS strong and unified," John Feffer, 13 August 2014.
http://fpif.org/bombing-caliphate/


CSIS: "Next Level Questions on Iraq Operations," Clark A. Murdock, Kathleen H. Hicks, Thomas Karako, Sameul J. Brannen, Ryan Crotty, John Schaus, Zack Cooper, 13 August 2014.
http://csis.org/files/publication/140814_ISP_NextLevelQuestionsIraq_Formatted.pdf


Foreign Policy:  "The Slippery Slope of U.S. Intervention: America's rescue mission in Iraq is going to be messier, longer, and more expensive than the White House wants to admit," Micah Zenko, 11 August 2014.
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/08/11/the_slippery_slope_of_us_intervention_iraq_islamic_state_humanitarian_intervention

Foreign Policy: "Do No (More) Harm," Stephen M. Walt, 07 August 2014.
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/08/07/let_it_bleed_iraq_isis_syria_airstrikes_israel_palestine_gaza_iran

 
Small Wars Journal:  "Digging Our Own Grave?  The Results of CT, COIN and Regime Change,"  Greg Simons, 30 July 2014.
http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/digging-our-own-grave-the-results-of-ct-coin-and-regime-change


Foreign Policy:  "While John Kerry Is on a Plane...: fixing State,"  Gordon Adams, 30 July 2014.
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/07/30/john_kerry_state_department_pentagon_us_foreign_policy_qddr_strategy

 
The Atlantic: "The Moral Argument for American Restraint -- in Iraq and Beyond," Noah Berlatsky, 17 July 2014.
http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2014/06/the-moral-argument-for-restraintin-iraq-and-around-the-world/372933/


Defense Strategy Review: "Crisis in Eastern Europe: Origins, Putin’s Input, and Tasks Ahead," Lutz Unterseher, 10 April 2014.
http://www.comw.org/wordpress/dsr/crisis-in-eastern-europe-origins-and-tasks-ahead


The Diplomat:  "Russia in Crimea:  When States Act Out of Insecurity," Ankit Panda, 15 March 2014.
http://thediplomat.com/2014/03/russia-in-crimea-when-states-act-out-of-insecurity/

Key Reports, Official Sources, Journal Articles, and Books


The White House: "Remarks by President Obama to the People of Estonia," Barack H. Obama, 03 September 2014.
http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2014/09/03/remarks-president-obama-people-estonia

Working Group on the Future of U.S.-Russia Relations:   "The Sword and the Shield: Toward U.S.-Russian Strategic Compatibility,"  Keith Darden and Timofei Bordachev, September 2014.
https://futureofusrussiarelations.files.wordpress.com/2014/05/the-sword-and-the-shield-toward-u-s-russian-strategic-compatibility.pdf

DoD:  "Transcript of Sec. Hagel and CJCS Dempsey Briefing on Operations in Iraq," 21 August 2014.
http://www.defense.gov/Transcripts/Transcript.aspx?TranscriptID=5491

Jamestown Foundation:  "The Islamic State's Strategic and Tactical Plan for Iraq," Murad Batal al-Shishani, 08 August 2014.
http://www.jamestown.org/single/?tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=42728&tx_ttnews%5BbackPid%5D=7&cHash=21f0b6f9f4df0001a8d3c9

National Defense Panel:  "Ensuring a Strong U.S. Defense for the Future," William J. Perry and John P. Abizaid, co-chairs, 31 July 2014.
http://www.usip.org/sites/default/files/Ensuring-a-Strong-U.S.-Defense-for-the-Future-NDP-Review-of-the-QDR_0.pdf

Center for American Progress: 
"The United States, Turkey, and the Kurdish Regions: the peace process in context," Michael Werz and Max Hoffman, 31 July 2014.
http://www.scribd.com/doc/235534314/The-United-States-Turkey-and-the-Kurdish-Regions-The-Peace-Process-in-Context

IN Homeland Security:  "Book Review: "Restraint: A New Foundation for U.S. Grand Strategy" by Barry Posen,"  Donald Sassano, 22 July 2014.
http://inhomelandsecurity.com/book-review-restraint-a-new-foundation-for-u-s-grand-strategy-by-barry-posen/

Air Force:  "America's Air Force: A Call to the Future; a thirty year strategy," July 2014.
http://airman.dodlive.mil/files/2014/07/AF_30_Year_Strategy_2.pdf

GAO: "Littoral Combat Ship: Additional Testing and Improved Weight Management Needed," July 2014.
http://www.gao.gov/assets/670/665114.pdf